Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[Lucien]

I'm going with no for two reasons. First, James Cameron is a better filmmaker. He makes movies that are visually phenomenal, and combined with the then-groundbreaking 3D Avatar was something that A: had to be seen, and B: had to be seen numerous times by many. The second problem is that while there are plenty of nerdy chicks in the world, they're still a subset of the movie-going public. Avatar appealed to all chicks because of some love story (or so I gather). That will account for a considerable amount of repeat viewings. SWWhatever won't have such a thing. Your average soccer mom might well want to see Avatar for some reason, and her jailbate daughter might want to see it numerous times, but neither will have much of an interest in a new SW movie.

And let's keep in mind that number two on that list is Titanic, and it's there for the exact same reasons. It was a beautiful spectacle of Cameron film-making and it had chick-appeal.

Women will probably like SWVII a lot because the main character is female. I know my sister is really hyped for the movie because of that

[hefdaddy42]

I haven't seen the movie but how the hell did Jurassic World do so well? It just seems like an odd choice of movie to hold that placement in both charts.

I'm in the same boat as you.

People expected it to be one of the hits of summer 2015, but no one expected it to do what it did. 

[Zantera]

I think people underestimated how much people love the original Jurassic Park, and wanted a new good JP-movie with the two previous sequels being disappointments. (TLW has some fans but JP3 has mostly negative buzz) I also think people really like Chris Pratt and they did a smart job of casting him as the protagonist.

[KevShmev]

I saw Star Wars when I was a kid, didn't like it that much, and have never bothered watching it, or any of the five sequels/prequels, since.

I have never seen Avatar. 

[orcus116]

I think people underestimated how much people love the original Jurassic Park, and wanted a new good JP-movie with the two previous sequels being disappointments. (TLW has some fans but JP3 has mostly negative buzz) I also think people really like Chris Pratt and they did a smart job of casting him as the protagonist.

I agree with your points but it was clearly advertised as a typical summer popcorn movie. Not great, not terrible but just "have some CGI, thanks for your money". Clearly I don't understand the mindset of the typical movie going person but as soon as I saw the trailer I immediately placed it in the "I'll catch it if it's on HBO on demand in a few months" bucket.

[Zantera]

I think people underestimated how much people love the original Jurassic Park, and wanted a new good JP-movie with the two previous sequels being disappointments. (TLW has some fans but JP3 has mostly negative buzz) I also think people really like Chris Pratt and they did a smart job of casting him as the protagonist.

I agree with your points but it was clearly advertised as a typical summer popcorn movie. Not great, not terrible but just "have some CGI, thanks for your money". Clearly I don't understand the mindset of the typical movie going person but as soon as I saw the trailer I immediately placed it in the "I'll catch it if it's on HBO on demand in a few months" bucket.

Sure, but most of those standard big blockbuster movies make around the 800 million-1 billion mark. Jurassic World made ~1.5 billion (i think?). It didn't get amazing reviews enough to the point where people HAD to see it several times in the cinemas. I just think nostalgia helped to bump it a lot. It was one of those movies nobody really hated, most people seemed to enjoy it (at least as popcorn entertainment) whereas a lot of other big blockbusters (like transformers) while making a lot of money usually has more lukewarm reviews.

[hefdaddy42]

Sure, but most of those standard big blockbuster movies make around the 800 million-1 billion mark.

I think you are overestimating a bit.  Only 49 films in history have made it to 800 million worldwide (not adjusted for inflation).  Only 23 films of them have hit 1 billion.

So I wouldn't say that most of the blockbusters hit that mark.

Of course, most of those have come this century.

[Zantera]

Sure, but most of those standard big blockbuster movies make around the 800 million-1 billion mark.

I think you are overestimating a bit.  Only 49 films in history have made it to 800 million worldwide (not adjusted for inflation).  Only 23 films of them have hit 1 billion.

So I wouldn't say that most of the blockbusters hit that mark.

Of course, most of those have come this century.

Yeah you're probably right. I think 500 million or more is a better figure to go off, and with Jurassic World making a billion more than that, it's just not your average summer blockbuster.

[Chino]

I think people underestimated how much people love the original Jurassic Park, and wanted a new good JP-movie with the two previous sequels being disappointments. (TLW has some fans but JP3 has mostly negative buzz) I also think people really like Chris Pratt and they did a smart job of casting him as the protagonist.

I loved the first film. Definitely in my top ten. I also love the second movie. I don't understand the hate it gets. The third movie was absolute shit.

I was beyond excited for Jurassic World. I had premiere night imax tickets but had to cancel going at the last minute. I still haven't seen it. I had the 3D blueray in my hand over the weekend, but I couldn't get myself to spend $38 dollars on it. If it came with the original trilogy, I would have paid a little more, but I can't justify that much money on a single movie that doesn't come with a lot of special features. 

Not sure where I was going with that 

[Chino]

Star Wars is getting an episode VIII and IX, yes? Has any time frame been given for those? Avatar has movies coming out Dec 2017, 2018, and 2019. Is it possible we might see a Star Wars film and an Avatar film in theaters at the same time? What a month that's going to be for the box office.

[Kotowboy]

The force Awakens - 2015

Rogue One - 2016

Episode 8 - 2017

The Han Solo Standalone Story - 2018

Episode 9 - 2019

The Third Anthology Movie - 2020




These are all TBA of course but that's the plan.

[hefdaddy42]

If I'm not mistaken, the month of release for episodes 8 & 9 will be May of their respective years.

[Chino]

I wonder if that's to avoid any Avatar overlap? Not to mention, they'll be able to use #MayTheFourthBeWith you for a ridiculous amount of free advertising.

[Zantera]

I feel like staying in December would have been even a smarter decision because it's easier to clean bank and get the monies. Star Wars is also a family movie, and with a lot of people spending time with their families around Christmas, it's a win-win. During the summer you have one big blockbuster opening every weekend.

[Kotowboy]

Titanic and Avatar both opened in December ? I think so.

I think Jim Cameron will release Avatar 2 & 3 in December too.

[Chino]

Titanic and Avatar both opened in December ? I think so.

I think Jim Cameron will release Avatar 2 & 3 in December too.

They've already been slated for Dec 16', Dec 17' and December 18'.

[Kotowboy]

Titanic and Avatar both opened in December ? I think so.

I think Jim Cameron will release Avatar 2 & 3 in December too.

They've already been slated for Dec 16', Dec 17' and December 18'.

The first is 2017 isn't it ?

[Chino]

17', 18' 19' ***

[BlobVanDam]

I wonder if that's to avoid any Avatar overlap? Not to mention, they'll be able to use #MayTheFourthBeWith you for a ridiculous amount of free advertising.

It has nothing at all to do with Avatar.
All 6 OT/PT Star Wars movies had May releases, so that's just the traditional date. The only reason The Force Awakens broke with that tradition is because there was no way it was releasing in March 2015 as originally planned, but Disney had already committed to shareholders that it would release in 2015, ruling out a March 2016 date. They just pushed it back as late as possible while still releasing in 2015.

[hefdaddy42]

^That^  Star Wars is not afraid of Avatar.

[Zantera]

Avatar has nothing on Star Wars and SW wouldn't move dates because they are afraid of Avatar, but with that said, it wouldn't be a smart move to have the movies come out at the same time, for any of them. It's the same type of movie, a big blockbuster, family friendly with fans in all ages and even though many would see both, a lot of people would pick one, and they would eat each other's box office. Similar to how Captain America: Civil War and Batman v Superman were scheduled for the same weekend but BvS moved, it is smarter for both parties to not go down that road.

[Chino]

I'm not claiming Star Wars to be afraid of Avatar. All I was suggesting is that with Avatar already slated for December releases, it would be detrimental to both franchises if they were to be released at the same time. It has more to do with which one called dibs on the month first, not which one is scared of which.

[orcus116]

Gut feeling, the newer Avatars will not be nearly as successful as the first one. Even if they were released on the same weekend SW would trounce all over it.

[Zantera]

I'm not claiming Star Wars to be afraid of Avatar. All I was suggesting is that with Avatar already slated for December releases, it would be detrimental to both franchises if they were to be released at the same time. It has more to do with which one called dibs on the month first, not which one is scared of which.

It doesn't really work like that though. With Captain America/Batman v Superman, BvS actually had the date first, then Marvel moved their film onto the date and BvS moved off after a few months of chicken race. There's really no such thing as dibs, it comes down to who has the most to lose. In this case neither really has anything to lose, but Star Wars as a franchise is bigger and so if SW hadn't moved, I'm sure Avatar would have.

[hefdaddy42]

I'm not claiming Star Wars to be afraid of Avatar. All I was suggesting is that with Avatar already slated for December releases, it would be detrimental to both franchises if they were to be released at the same time. It has more to do with which one called dibs on the month first, not which one is scared of which.

I was kind of kidding.

But for Star Wars, May is the traditional release date.

With Captain America/Batman v Superman, BvS actually had the date first, then Marvel moved their film onto the date and BvS moved off after a few months of chicken race.

That's not actually true.  Marvel already had the release date, but at the time it wasn't named which Marvel film it would be.  Then BvS picked the same date.  Then Marvel announced which film it would be.  DC eventually moved.

[Zantera]

With Captain America/Batman v Superman, BvS actually had the date first, then Marvel moved their film onto the date and BvS moved off after a few months of chicken race.

That's not actually true.  Marvel already had the release date, but at the time it wasn't named which Marvel film it would be.  Then BvS picked the same date.  Then Marvel announced which film it would be.  DC eventually moved.

Ah alright. The more you know!

[RuRoRul]

I haven't seen the movie but how the hell did Jurassic World do so well? It just seems like an odd choice of movie to hold that placement in both charts.

I'm in the same boat as you.

People expected it to be one of the hits of summer 2015, but no one expected it to do what it did.

Yeah, I think that applied to basically everyone. I certainly had no idea to expect it to be something that'd be mentioned as one of the highest grossing films ever, and all the reports about its box office records seemed basically confused about how it had managed it.

My thought is that a lot of people like Jurassic Park (remember it reigned as the highest grossing film for a few years before Titanic came out) and despite having sequels that weren't as well received, the franchise had been left alone long enough that people were willing to accept it being revived. But also, while nostalgia for the existing film(s) might bring in plenty of people, Jurassic World is something that can be understood and enjoyed by anyone (there are dinosaurs - that's basically all you need to know) whether or not they have seen the previous films, so it is able to appeal to younger kids as much as older fans. And while not many people were saying "This is one of the greatest movies ever", the general consensus seemed to be "It's surprisingly good" or "There's nothing really wrong with it", and personally I suspect that the market was just ready for a big summer blockbuster that wasn't Marvel, so this film that appealed to a wide range of people and was pretty well received was the one to strike success.

The fact that Jurassic World made so much suggests Star Wars has a pretty good chance - like people said no one was talking about Jurassic World's chances of being one of the highest grossing films ever before it came out but it easily reached #3 all time, and you could think that Star Wars could basically have numbers similar to Jurassic World as a base just by being a successful widely appealing blockbuster, plus all the added hype and marketing, plus potentially really good legs over the "dead zone" of January and February next year.

[Chino]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2015/11/18/box-office-star-wars-the-force-awakens-wont-top-avatar-if-it-plays-like-the-prequels/

Box Office: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Won't Top 'Avatar' If It Plays Like The Prequels

Really good article.

It is quite possible that The Force Awakens can give Avatar a run for its money at the top of the domestic charts. But in order to do so, it will have to sell more tickets in its initial theatrical release than five out of the six Star Wars movies and more tickets than all but eleven movies ever. It would have to gross as much in total box office as the first three Star Wars films earned in their runs, with the second two being aided by those 20th anniversary re-releases. I am not saying it can't be done. 3D and IMAX/PLF ticket price bumps may well prove to be the deciding factor, while the December release date is a new variable, albeit one I focused on two months ago. But I will be really impressed if a movie, any movie, pulls off that kind of number in today's theatrical movie going environment. Of course, I'll be impressed if it's merely a big hit. So good luck, Disney, J.J. Abrams, Lucasfilm, and all of the Star Wars fans out there. You've got 91.3 million tickets to buy/sell starting next month. Game on! This is going to be so much fun...

[hefdaddy42]

It's definitely a longshot, but also definitely possible.

The hype and expectation is enough to guarantee a monstrous opening weekend.  If they have made a truly special film on top of that (for which I am hopeful), which longtime fans reward like they did with the OT (repeated viewings), then they've got a shot.

[Chino]

The merchandise surrounding this film is unlike anything I've ever seen. It's literally everywhere. I was in Kohl's the other night and they had at least a half dozen displays around the store with nothing by Star Wars stuff.

[hefdaddy42]

Yeah, it's everywhere.

But that's OK.

[Chino]

I'm not saying that's a bad thing or indicative of anything. Just an observation. I'd be very curious to see what just the merchandise sales generate.

[BlobVanDam]

I'm not saying that's a bad thing or indicative of anything. Just an observation. I'd be very curious to see what just the merchandise sales generate.

Based on the Force Friday sales, they've estimated $3bn in merchandise by the end of the year, and a total of $5bn for the first year.

[Chino]

I'm not saying that's a bad thing or indicative of anything. Just an observation. I'd be very curious to see what just the merchandise sales generate.

Based on the Force Friday sales, they've estimated $3bn in merchandise by the end of the year, and a total of $5bn for the first year.

Wow. That's mind boggling.

[BlobVanDam]

I don't think Disney will have any trouble making back their $4bn investment on Lucasfilm.