Will the new Star Wars movie top Avatar at the box office?

[Chino]

So...

End game?

[Adami]

Doubtful. Star Wars doesn't do as well in places like China, which is a major spot now.


Honestly, one of the main reasons why Avatar is at 2.7 billion or whatever...well 2 of the reasons are...
1) It played for a really long time at a time when it didn't have as much competition as modern blockbusters do
2) You HAD to see it in 3D, which was considerably more expensive. If everyone saw Avatar in 2D instead, the box office would likely be much lower. Still well over a billion, maybe even over 2 billion, but not 2.7.

I see Star Wars making maybe 1.8 or 1.9 billion. The Last Jedi didn't do it any favors.


Edit: Didn't realize this was an old thread haha.

Endgame probably won't top Avatar either. Like I said, very different circumstances. However, if you compare tickets sold, as opposed to money made, it might be much much closer.

[lordxizor]

So...

End game?

It's got a decent chance. We'll see what the drop off is for weekend 2. I was looking at showings near me on Friday and it's slim pickings for seats.

[Chino]

So...

End game?

It's got a decent chance. We'll see what the drop off is for weekend 2. I was looking at showings near me on Friday and it's slim pickings for seats.

I've got a bet going with a few buddies of mine. I don't think it'll break 3/4 of what Avatar earned. The bet is as follws:

- If it fails to break 3/4, they owe me a six pack
- If it breaks the 3/4 mark but still falls short, it's a wash.
- If it breaks the full amount, I owe them six packs

[soupytwist]

Yeah it will easily pass it Avatar.  It's already the 10th highest grossing movie of all time after 5 days.....

Most big films take a 3rd of the final totals over the first week.   If that is a trend the continues with Endgame it'll take 3.7 Billion worldwide - which is a cool billion higher than Avatar.  This film is going to smash records.

[Adami]

Yeah it will easily pass it Avatar.  It's already nearly halfway there after just 4 days.  I suspect it'll pass 2 billion fairly easily after this second weekend.

Most big films take a 3rd of the final totals over the first week.   If that is a trend the continues with Endgame it'll take 3.7 Billion worldwide - which is a cool billion higher than Avatar.  This film is going to smash records.

Yea, that's not going to happen. It'll probably pass Titanic, but not Avatar. Like I pointed out, there were just certain circumstances for that movie that won't be replicated for this.

[The Walrus]

I would love to see Endgame whoop Avatar's ass at the box office but I agree with Adami. Avatar cheesed its way to the top because the planets aligned just right. Endgame might not match it but boy it's smashed records in such an extraordinary way I can't even come up with an idea of what might do better in the future.

[soupytwist]

Yeah it will easily pass it Avatar.  It's already nearly halfway there after just 4 days.  I suspect it'll pass 2 billion fairly easily after this second weekend.

Most big films take a 3rd of the final totals over the first week.   If that is a trend the continues with Endgame it'll take 3.7 Billion worldwide - which is a cool billion higher than Avatar.  This film is going to smash records.

Yea, that's not going to happen. It'll probably pass Titanic, but not Avatar. Like I pointed out, there were just certain circumstances for that movie that won't be replicated for this.

It will probably pass Titanic's total by next Monday.  It will pass Avatar I believe, it would have to pull Batman vs Superman dropoff levels to fail to break Avatar's record - and this film is getting much better reviews/word of mouth than BvS did.  Also the fact it's making so much money means it becomes a event movie - much like Titanic and Avatar did.

[Chino]

Yeah it will easily pass it Avatar.  It's already the 10th highest grossing movie of all time after 5 days.....

Most big films take a 3rd of the final totals over the first week.   If that is a trend the continues with Endgame it'll take 3.7 Billion worldwide - which is a cool billion higher than Avatar.  This film is going to smash records.

Yeah. Not a chance it gets anywhere near $3.7B.   

Avatar spent almost 9 months in theaters. People of all types saw it. The majority of the people that want to see End Game already have, and I don't see many people going 4+ times like a lot of people did for Avatar over those 9 months. End Game will most likely hit a wall very quickly and run out of new demographics to appeal to. 

My mom and grandma, who hate pretty much anything sci-fi, finally went out and saw Avatar like three months in. That was the case for a lot of people. You're not going to see that with End Game.

[Adami]

Chino's right. I think Avatar was a pretty dumb movie, and I loved Endgame, but no way it beats it.

Endgame requires quite some knowledge of the MCU for repeated viewings. Avatar didn't even require an understanding of the plot or story. People mostly just went to see the pretty pictures. As much as I look down on that, it speaks across countries/cultures/languages etc. Endgame doesn't do that.

[hefdaddy42]

I suspect you may be wrong.

I think Endgame has a chance to edge out Avatar.

[bosk1]

Space Smurfs is going down.

[Adami]

I suspect you may be wrong.

I think Endgame has a chance to edge out Avatar.

I have no idea how to respond to you disagreeing with me. Do I just capitulate? Do I commit Seppuku? So many feelings.

[Podaar]

I suspect you may be wrong.

I think Endgame has a chance to edge out Avatar.

I have no idea how to respond to you disagreeing with me. Do I just capitulate? Do I commit Seppuku? So many feelings.

I recommend going and eating worms. That's usually what I do when Hef disagrees with me.

[soupytwist]

Chino's right. I think Avatar was a pretty dumb movie, and I loved Endgame, but no way it beats it.

Endgame requires quite some knowledge of the MCU for repeated viewings. Avatar didn't even require an understanding of the plot or story. People mostly just went to see the pretty pictures. As much as I look down on that, it speaks across countries/cultures/languages etc. Endgame doesn't do that.

That's all well and good.....but Endgame has taken 1.35 Billion after 5 days.  That's half of Avatar already, that's more than 'The Last Jedi' took in it's lifetime.   Tomorrow Endgame will most likely pass Ultron's total, by Friday it'll probably pass Assembles total.   After the weekend it'll pass 2 billion - and be around Infinity Wars total - in 12 days.

[bosk1]

Chino's right. I think Avatar was a pretty dumb movie, and I loved Endgame, but no way it beats it.

Endgame requires quite some knowledge of the MCU for repeated viewings. Avatar didn't even require an understanding of the plot or story. People mostly just went to see the pretty pictures. As much as I look down on that, it speaks across countries/cultures/languages etc. Endgame doesn't do that.

That's all well and good.....but Endgame has taken 1.35 Billion after 5 days.  That's half of Avatar already, that's more than 'The Last Jedi' took in it's lifetime.   Tomorrow Endgame will most likely pass Ultron's total, by Friday it'll probably pass Assembles total.   After the weekend it'll pass 2 billion - and be around Infinity Wars total - in 12 days.

I think Endgame will likely surpass Avatar as well.  But your predictions are WAY too aggressive.  It cannot reach those numbers that quickly.  It's just an impossibility.  Yes, it does mindblowing numbers these first five days.  But remember--a VERY large percentage of the first 5 day totals comes from advance ticket sales that started months ago.  That will slow down.  You also had a number of theaters opening for extended hours, and even some that did 24-hour showings.  That also will not continue (although it is cool that something so unprecedented happened).  So all that said, while the early numbers are just astounding, I think the numbers WILL start to fall off sharply for those two reasons.  They have to.

The flipside to that, however, is that I think it will still do monster dollars from repeat viewings.  And it will pick up a ton of less-die-hard fans who didn't want to buy in advance or who didn't want to deal with the opening week to two-week crowds.  But those two groups may keep this in theaters for awhile once it gets down to being shown on just one or two screens per theater.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it stay longer than any other Marvel film.

[hefdaddy42]

I suspect you may be wrong.

I think Endgame has a chance to edge out Avatar.

I have no idea how to respond to you disagreeing with me. Do I just capitulate? Do I commit Seppuku? So many feelings.

I encourage you to find your own path.

[soupytwist]

Chino's right. I think Avatar was a pretty dumb movie, and I loved Endgame, but no way it beats it.

Endgame requires quite some knowledge of the MCU for repeated viewings. Avatar didn't even require an understanding of the plot or story. People mostly just went to see the pretty pictures. As much as I look down on that, it speaks across countries/cultures/languages etc. Endgame doesn't do that.

That's all well and good.....but Endgame has taken 1.35 Billion after 5 days.  That's half of Avatar already, that's more than 'The Last Jedi' took in it's lifetime.   Tomorrow Endgame will most likely pass Ultron's total, by Friday it'll probably pass Assembles total.   After the weekend it'll pass 2 billion - and be around Infinity Wars total - in 12 days.

I think Endgame will likely surpass Avatar as well.  But your predictions are WAY too aggressive. 

Tuesdays takings have just been added it's now upto 1,448m.   Taking it past Ultron (and becoming the 8th highest grossing movie of all time).  If it takes a modest 100m -150m in the next two days, it will only need to take over  400m over the friday + weekend to be at 2 billion.   I'd say that's well within reach.

Just to clarify - Endgame added a staggering 230m to it's worldwide total this Monday and Tuesday.

[bosk1]

Yeah, and you know, on second thought, I guess here is where I am partially wrong:  I don't know that advance sales and additional theater hours are factors that will change much in a lot of countries outside the U.S.  I still think you are too aggressive on your timeline, but not as much as I was originally thinking.

[The Walrus]

I'm interested what this upcoming weekend will do for Endgame. I know I'm seeing it at least two more times between Friday and Sunday myself.

[bosk1]

I'm interested what this upcoming weekend will do for Endgame. I know I'm seeing it at least two more times between Friday and Sunday myself.

Well, that should get it MUCH closer to the $2.7 billion mark.

[The Walrus]

I'm interested what this upcoming weekend will do for Endgame. I know I'm seeing it at least two more times between Friday and Sunday myself.

Well, that should get it MUCH closer to the $2.7 billion mark.

I'm going millions in debt per showing. 

[pg1067]

Just curious...are all these numbers being thrown around adjusted for inflation?  Isn't Gone with the Wind still the highest grossing movie of all time when the numbers are adjusted for inflation?

[Adami]

Just curious...are all these numbers being thrown around adjusted for inflation?  Isn't Gone with the Wind still the highest grossing movie of all time when the numbers are adjusted for inflation?

No and yes. Respectively.

[Chino]

It's tricky. Gone with the Wind was in theaters for a little over 4 years and made $500M in that span of time. I think that would be something like $3.4B today, but it took four years of non-stop showing to achieve that. On the flippy flip, the population in the 40s was like half of what it was today. If there were 7B people on the planet back then, would it have made $6B+ in today's money? Who knows.   

Even comparing End Game to Avatar is tough. On one had, movie tickets cost something like 25% more today than they did in 2009, but I was paying $16+ for 3D Imaxx viewings which were definitely factored into that $2.7B total. 3D ticket sales in general were more than a standard ticket, and correct me if I'm wrong, but End Game was 2D only, right? I haven't been to a movie in ages, but I'd suspect a standard 2D ticket is about what a 3D ticket cost back then.

[RuRoRul]

On the subject of the box office record, here are the top few films for both Worldwide box office and Domestic (i.e. USA) box office, with their total gross (in millions) as well as how they compare to Avatar's gross in that market (so Avatar's gross is 100%, a film that makes half as much is 50%, etc.):

Worldwide
1. Avatar - $2,788m (100%)
2. Titanic - $2,186.8m (78.4%)
3. Jurassic World - $1,665.8 (59.7%)
4. Marvel's The Avengers - $1,519.6 (54.5%)
5. Furious 7 - $1,514.8 (54.3%)
6. Avengers: Age Of Ultron - $1,402.8 (50.3%)
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $1,341.5 (48.1%)

Domestic
1. Avatar - $760.5m (100%)
2. Titanic - $658.7m (86.6%)
3. Jurassic World - $651.8m (85.7%)
4. Marvel's The Avengers - $623.4m (82.0%)
5. The Dark Knight - $524.9m (69.2%)
6. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace - $474.5m (62.4%)
7. Star Wars (A New Hope) - $461.0m (60.1%)



The thing worth noting here imo is how much further ahead the James Cameron duo is in the worldwide box office compared to the USA. For example Jurassic World's domestic gross is over 85% of Avatar's domestic gross, and it almost overtook Titanic. Yet on the worldwide level, Jurassic World (which by no means did badly with global audiences) didn't even reach 60% of Avatar's total. So while other big films are regularly grossing quite close to Avatar in the USA, none are coming close worldwide.

Also worth mentioning that there are different films on those lists - a film being near the top of the overall chart in the USA doesn't necessarily mean it will make the same position worldwide. And notice a couple of films that appear on the US list but not worldwide? Star Wars. You have to go down to #20 on the overall worldwide box office chart to find Episode I, and the original Star Wars doesn't even crack the top 50, despite them being #6 and #7 on the domestic chart.

So seeing those numbers (Avatar not being quite as far ahead of the chasing pack in the domestic box office, and the Star Wars franchise historically doing much better in the US than globally), am I really the only person here that thinks Star Wars 7 might take #1 all time in the domestic box office but not make #1 all time worldwide? I mean, it could be that the market has changed enough and this is the Star Wars film the global box office is ready to really embrace making it #1 in both, or Star Wars could "fail" to pass Avatar's domestic haul and not be #1 in either, but to me it seems as though there is a pretty gaping space in the middle for Star Wars to become #1 domestic but #3 or #2 worldwide, and that might just be the sweet spot for it.

Just seeing this thread bumped again, pretty shameless gloating post from me here but how often do you get to look back and see your prediction played out quite so nicely?   I see another couple of people picked the same option in the poll since I made that post, but Star Wars overperforming in the USA relative to the rest of the world held true so #1 domestic #3 worldwide turned out to be right.

As for Endgame one, it's an interesting one as the opening weekend Box Office is just, so far ahead of anything else it's hard to even make the comparison (it was almost double Infinity War's worldwide opening weekend, and Infinity War was the previous record holder almost $100m ahead of the next one down). But for something so unprecedentedly huge, it's possible things could go pretty differently. I could see some of that opening weekend being more about people wanting to make sure to see this one even earlier than usual rather than purely just more people wanting to see it. So we could see it drop a lot and play more like a "normal" huge movie by the second weekend rather than maintain this pace.

But, looking at it this way: Infinity War made $640m opening weekend, and ended with $2,048m at the box office, so it's total gross after the opening weekend was around $1,408m. Endgame made $1,223m (!!!) on it's opening weekend. Even if it were to add the same amount as Infinity War made after it's opening weekend, it would reach $2,631m - second behind Avatar at $2,788m. That's the stat that makes me think it has good chance.

But the main question is if, as I said above, it just will have roughly the same audience as Infinity War except they went to see it even earlier (in which case it will drop off steeply since there's not as many people left to go and see it), or if it will actually have a bigger audience than Infinity War (including repeat viewings). From what I read it held decently on Monday and added a fine amount on Tuesday - the second weekend will probably be the first indication of whether it has a much bigger drop than predicted.

[Zantera]

Considering Avatar is mediocre at best, it would be nice to see it dethroned. However with that said, the stars aligned and the movie was the perfect mix of something new, 3D hype, spectacle, James Cameron, and so on. There's always a lot of talk how companies keep milking known IPs because a new Star Wars movie or a new Spider-Man movie or anything that is recognized by the mainstream has a head start, but to me part of why Avatar was so successful was because it was something new. I think the fact that you could go see that movie in the cinema and be 100% caught up appealed to a lot of people. Endgame will make loads of money and could potentially earn more, but I think the downside is that a lot of people won't see it because they have 21 movies to catch up on before they see it. Avatar didn't have that baggage. On the flip side, I think superhero fans will go see Endgame several times in cinemas so we'll see.

[Chino]

Considering Avatar is mediocre at best, it would be nice to see it dethroned. However with that said, the stars aligned and the movie was the perfect mix of something new, 3D hype, spectacle, James Cameron, and so on. There's always a lot of talk how companies keep milking known IPs because a new Star Wars movie or a new Spider-Man movie or anything that is recognized by the mainstream has a head start, but to me part of why Avatar was so successful was because it was something new. I think the fact that you could go see that movie in the cinema and be 100% caught up appealed to a lot of people. Endgame will make loads of money and could potentially earn more, but I think the downside is that a lot of people won't see it because they have 21 movies to catch up on before they see it. Avatar didn't have that baggage. On the flip side, I think superhero fans will go see Endgame several times in cinemas so we'll see.

I saw Avatar 10 times before it was out of theaters.

[lordxizor]

and correct me if I'm wrong, but End Game was 2D only, right?

No, Endgame is out in 3D as well. I saw it on Imax 3D since it was the most convenient Imax showing for me. I thought I saw something that 20% of Engame's opening weekend revenue was for 3D showings. I would guess Avatars were over 50%.

For Avatar, modern 3D was a new thing and everyone wanted to see it in 3D since that was part of the appeal. Since then, pretty much everyone has come to agree that 3D movies aren't that great and don't want to pay the premium.

Not that any of that means much, just that it's incredibly difficult to meaningfully compare the box office receipts of movies from different eras.

[Chino]

and correct me if I'm wrong, but End Game was 2D only, right?

No, Endgame is out in 3D as well. I saw it on Imax 3D since it was the most convenient Imax showing for me. I thought I saw something that 20% of Engame's opening weekend revenue was for 3D showings. I would guess Avatars were over 50%.

For Avatar, modern 3D was a new thing and everyone wanted to see it in 3D since that was part of the appeal. Since then, pretty much everyone has come to agree that 3D movies aren't that great and don't want to pay the premium.

Not that any of that means much, just that it's incredibly difficult to meaningfully compare the box office receipts of movies from different eras.

I stand corrected. 

As for the "3D movies aren't that great" comment, I blame that on the movie studios. Avatar was amazing in 3D because it was done right. It was filmed in 3D, and every scene was directed with 3D in mind. This applies to movies like Hugo and Life of Pi (which used James Cameron's cameras) as well. 3D got a shit reputation because of crap like Alice in Wonderland that filmed the movie as they would any other, and then spent $12M in post production having a team choose which objects to make come out of the screen.   

It's a damn shame if you ask me. When done properly, 3D can be amazing. 

[Cool Chris]

On the worldwide chart, that gap between Avatar and #2 never ceases to astound me. That's like Bonds breaking Aaron's HR record of 755 by hitting 963 (or however the math shakes out). 

[soupytwist]

Yeah, and you know, on second thought, I guess here is where I am partially wrong:  I don't know that advance sales and additional theater hours are factors that will change much in a lot of countries outside the U.S.  I still think you are too aggressive on your timeline, but not as much as I was originally thinking.

I'm actually starting to think I may have underestimated, rather than been aggressive.   It appears now that it will overtake Assemble a day early than I predicted (once Wednesday's totals are in).

The big thing will be this weekend.  MCU films tend to drop off around the 50% - 60% for their second weekends (IW was 55%).  If Endgame can stay within those figures then it will pass 2 billion by Monday.

[soupytwist]

Ok this is getting stupid now 1.638 Billion taken with Wednesdays added - it's just sailed past Assemble and into 6th place all time.

[Adami]

The hell is Assemble?

[Chino]

My guess it that's an autocorrect to "Avengers"